The United States risks losing its ability to understand and manage its most consequential bilateral relationship, according to a new report by the U.S.-China Education Trust (USCET), a Washington-based nonprofit focused on advancing ties through higher education.
The report, following months of research, links a shortage of political trust and declining exchanges to a widening ‘talent gap’ that poses a potential threat to America’s strategic capabilities.
Zhiqun Zhu, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, called the report “a wake-up call” for both the government and society. “Many of us in higher education and China studies worry that America’s next generation China scholars will have very shallow knowledge of China,” he said.
The study, conducted between September 2025 and January 2026 during the second Trump administration, involved consultations with more than 50 institutions in both the U.S. and China. It proposes that expertise on China be treated as a national strategic asset, on par with trade and security issues. However, the systems that once cultivated this talent are now under severe strain.
At a recent USCET event, Nicholas Burns, who served as U.S. Ambassador to China under the Biden administration, underscored the urgency, stating that language proficiency and firsthand experience are irreplaceable. “It is a national security imperative,” Burns said. He expressed concern that without enough students entering the pipeline today, future U.S. ambassadors will lack sufficient support from a strong talent pool.
A Sharp Decline
The data reflects a stark reality: fewer than 2,000 Americans are currently studying in China annually, a dramatic drop from approximately 11,000 in 2019. While the COVID-19 pandemic was the initial trigger, the report notes that the recovery has been slow and uneven due to deeper political and institutional barriers.
For Charlie Howes, a 23-year-old American entrepreneur in Shanghai, the change is personal. ” I was able to spend my formative years at a time when more than 10,000 Americans were studying in China, down to when I was 1 of 300 students in 2022.,” he said.
Howes first went to China with support from the U.S. National Security Language Initiative before enrolling at NYU Shanghai. Upon graduation, he was among the few Americans who remained in the country, eventually launching a tech company in Shanghai.
Howes noted that even in joint-venture education programs, American retention is failing. “In the Class of 2025, out of 500 international graduates, only 7 Americans chose to stay in China after graduation.” He recalled that the U.S. government-funded program he participated in—once a major channel for exchange—has since been suspended. “I was among the last group of students to study in Beijing through that program.”
The USCET report underscores a broad consensus that “a deep understanding of China is essential for effective policymaking, business decision-making, and analysis.” It further notes that as China becomes less open, it is “making it harder to understand from the outside and amplifying the need for exposure to the country’s fast-changing dynamics.” The authors warn: “While students can gain valuable insights studying China from afar, relying solely on these methods cannot provide the whole picture.”
Hongxia Wei, Chief Research Fellow at the U.S. Studies Center, Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies in Beijing, echoed this sentiment: “As the report states, for both China and the U.S., experts who can read each other are indeed a strategic asset at the national level, because the governments, businesses, and academic circles of both sides need the support of talent who ‘know China’ and ‘know America’.”
Is There a Solution?
The report outlines several recommendations, including calls for both Washington and Beijing to expand government support for educational exchanges.
Zongyou Wei, a professor at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies, noted that academic appeals only go so far. “If the executive branch and Congress do not change restrictive policies, including visa limitations, normal people-to-people exchanges will remain extremely difficult,” he said.
The report identifies barriers on both sides of the Pacific: visa restrictions, fears of espionage, deepening distrust, budget cuts, and stringent national security reviews. In the U.S., some state governments have passed legislation restricting or banning exchanges, forcing public universities to cancel programs and even restrict access to Chinese books and datasets. In China, American scholars face an academic environment that has grown increasingly “restrictive and securitized.” “These pressures from both sides are driving the downward trend,” the report states.
Daming Diao, an associate professor at Renmin University of China, said the barriers to academic research are palpable and will have “far-reaching negative implications for the future of bilateral relations.” He added that a “positive, safe environment” must be provided for Chinese scholars in the U.S. to create a “truly virtuous cycle.”
Wei noted that China is currently encouraging U.S. high schoolers and young college students to visit on study tours to spark interest in future long-term study. “Over the past three years, China has been proactively strengthening youth exchange initiatives… laying the groundwork for higher-level academic cooperation in the future.”
Former veteran New York Times journalist Ian Johnson argued in a previous interview with the Monitor that “Universities need to organize student groups to travel with their teachers, breaking the ice and demonstrating that China is not as intimidating as perceived. In terms of crime, China is safer than the United States, and Chinese people are welcoming.”
Addressing national security concerns, Johnson added: “Critics might bring up issues like the case of the two Michaels (Two Canadians who were detained in China on espionage charges)…but this is different. We’re talking about undergraduates going for language studies, who are not at risk of arrest.”
The report’s contributors include experts like Madelyn Ross, who was among the first group of American students to visit China after normalization in the late 1970s, and Rosie Levine, the Executive Director of USCET and a rising star in the field, who spent part of her childhood and graduate years in Beijing.
David Lampton, a renowned China scholar and chair of the report’s working group, summarized the stakes in the report’s foreword: “America needs a deep pool of expertise that understands China from both the ‘outside-in’ and the ‘inside-out.’”
“In-depth, on-the-ground exposure to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is especially important in this era of growing security, economic, and soft power friction between the United States and China,” Lampton said.
In a previous interview with the Monitor, Michael Szonyi, a professor of Chinese history at Harvard University, emphasized that “regardless of whether bilateral relations improve or continue to deteriorate, greater mutual understanding and more people-to-people connections benefit both countries.” He encouraged American scholars and students to visit China to gain firsthand knowledge.
Without sustained investment in exchanges, the USCET report warns, the United States risks losing not only expertise on China, but the ability to navigate one of its most critical global relationships.