On January 9-10, 2024, the Carter Center held the Forum in Honor of Jimmy Carter and the 45th Anniversary of U.S.-China Relations. The event commemorated President Carter’s decision with Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping to normalize diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China in January 1979.
On the second day of the forum, the Center hosted private Track-II dialogues between American and Chinese experts on different issues in the bilateral relationship. These followed a plenary session featuring speeches by scholars and longtime practitioners in U.S.-China relations. With his permission, the U.S.-China Perception Monitor has published Yu Yunquan’s speech at the plenary session. Yu Yunquan is President of Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies.
It’s a great honor to speak here at this significant event. Many thanks to The Carter Center for inviting me back to Atlanta. Many thanks to Professor Liu Yawei and your colleagues for all your efforts.
I came to Atlanta in 2019 for the symposium which marked 40 years of the formalization of U.S.-China diplomatic ties. The symposium was held at a critical time for U.S.-China relations, as well as in the winter cold, in the midst of increasing tension and a bitter trade war. But this time, I feel the atmosphere is milder and more favorable.
It was also in winter, 45 years ago, that President Carter and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping looked beyond their nations’ many differences and found common ground, deciding to normalize the diplomatic ties between our two nations and lay the foundation for the rapid growth of bilateral relations. This is the most important foreign-policy accomplishment in both the United States and China. I still remember what President Carter said in his remarks: “All of these things have been a wonderful contribution to peace, stability, growth, and prosperity in both of our countries.”
Today I would extend President Carter’s saying. His decision with Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping 45 years ago has brought substantial benefits to people in both our countries.
Most of the time, when we think about the relations between our countries, we often think of them as government-to-government relations. But these relations have domestic foundations; they can be seen as relations between the two societies. There is a Chinese saying: “Friendship between nations lies in the friendship between the people.” Today, China and the United States do not pay enough attention to the views of the people, who benefit from good relations between China and the United States, and will also seriously influence diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Today, I would like to talk about the way Chinese people’s opinions on China-U.S. relations have changed in the past 15 years.
There are a lot of American public opinion surveys about China. Numerous public opinion surveys have found that Americans’ views of China have become extremely negative in recent years. But there are very few up-to-date public opinion surveys about Chinese attitudes toward the outside world in general, and to the United States in particular. U.S. foreign policymakers may be surprised to hear that most Chinese think U.S. accusations toward China are very nonsensical. Much less is understood about the trends surrounding Chinese people’s views of the United States and the countries’ bilateral relations. It’s time to pay more attention to the thinking of ordinary Chinese people’s opinion.
An early survey by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2008 focused on the basic understanding of the Chinese people towards the United States and Sino-U.S. relations. In the years around 2008, China-U.S. relations were relatively well-developed. When ordinary people were asked how they perceive this important relationship, 18% answered “good”, 68% responded “OK”, and less than 5% answered “bad”. The results indicated that more than two-thirds of the public held a relatively objective attitude towards then China-U.S. relations and the evaluation of the U.S. was relatively positive.
Regarding the prospect of China-U.S. relations, the number of people holding “optimistic” attitudes accounted for 46% of respondents. The number of people holding “pessimistic” attitudes was less than 5%. This indicated the majority of Chinese people are optimistic about the future of China-U.S. relations. Overall, this early survey shows that Chinese people’s views on China-U.S. relations are relatively rational, objective, and moderate, without extreme tendencies.
But the situation changed from 2018 to 2019 during the Trump administration. From June 10th to July 2019, and in February 2020, a survey by the Institute of International Strategy at Peking University shows a variation. The special feature of this survey is that it separates the general public from experts. There are some significant differences between the Chinese public and Beijing experts in their perception of the United States. 21% of the public has a favorable impression of the United States. Experts have a much higher favorable impression of the United States (32%) than the public. The reason is that experts have more opportunities to personally interact with foreigners and travel abroad than the public, so their impression of foreign countries is not as easily influenced by domestic media as the public. Experts do not have the same negative impression of the United States as the public, indicating that increasing social contacts between people in China and the United States should allow them to see the United States more comprehensively.
It is worth noting that only 20% of the public and 5% of experts expressed trust in the handling of U.S.-China relations by U.S. leaders, while 52% and 63% of the public and experts distrust U.S. leaders in general. But the vast majority of respondents believe that common interests between the two countries outweigh the differences, and stable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations is beneficial to both sides.
It should be noted that during the survey period (June to July 2019), trade tensions between China and the United States were intensifying. Trump’s trade policies toward China were a source of significant controversy during his presidency.
It is also worth pointing out that in recent years, polls have found that young Chinese people have increased confidence in China while looking down on the U.S. and the West. A survey of public opinion in China conducted by researchers at Rice University during the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign finds that Chinese youth view the U.S. more negatively than their elders.
Based on data from 2013-2021, my institution did a survey analysis of youth ages 18 to 35 and their view of the world. We found that young Chinese people’s approval rating of China’s image has significantly increased from a score of 7.9 in 2013 to a score of 9 in 2021 (the highest possible score being a 10), far higher than the average score of 6.6 for other countries. They are very proud of their country’s rapid development and love their own culture. The battle against the COVID-19 pandemic made Chinese people trust their government more. They highly approve of China’s influence in international affairs – approval rating increased from 82 percent in 2015 to 94 percent in 2021. Since 2020, Chinese youth have rated China’s economic influence higher than the United States.
A poll conducted by Sun Yat-Sen University in January of 2023 suggests that as China’s relative power grows, Chinese youth may not desire for China to change the status quo, as has been widely assumed. Moreover, the findings show that China’s growing power has fostered a generation of Chinese youth with strong support for more assertive Chinese foreign policy.
In brief, through extensive research on Chinese youth, we can surmise that the opinions of Chinese youth reflect a growing attitude of confidence towards China. This should be understood in the context of China’s far-reaching developments. This generation of youth grew up during China’s rapid economic rise, the opening of extensive educational opportunities, and the arrival of the digital era. Young Chinese have developed a more comprehensive understanding of the world. They are not only preserving the traditions of the elder generation, but also acting as the innovators of future. It may affect Chinese foreign policies in the future and offer a chance for China to have peaceful relations with other countries in the future.
Finally, I would like to talk about the newest poll by Morning Consult from February 2022 to October 2023. It shows that hostility toward the U.S. in China has dropped sharply. According to the poll, attitudes in China have become more friendly to the U.S. In April 2022, more than 80% of Chinese respondents said they viewed the U.S. as an enemy, but by October 2023, that number had fallen to less than 50%. More than 75% also said both sides should work to resolve tensions. This shift in viewpoint could absolutely help support a thaw as both U.S. and Chinese leaders work to improve dialogue and stabilize relations. The favorable views in media of both sides have shaped an atmosphere of stable relations for the coming year. Although, there are some worries about accusations of China during the American election season, as some candidates did in previous campaigns, using negative perceptions of China as a tool to win votes.
In summary, the Chinese people are no longer as poor and behind as they were 45 years ago. With the development of the economy and the opening-up of society, the thinking of the Chinese people has gradually diversified. The development of the internet and social media has provided channels for the public to receive and send out more diverse information and perspectives. Most netizens are becoming more rational and tolerant, no longer influenced by just one voice.
Today, I have shared with you changes in Chinese public opinion, especially the views of Chinese youth throughout the past decade – more than a decade – in order to capture the attention of the distinguished people who are here participating in this significant event. We should build more bridges and pave more roads for people-to-people interactions in the future.
Thank you for your attention!
