With Musk Out, the White House Belongs to the Hawks

At a May 30 press conference, President Trump presented Elon Musk a golden key to symbolize his contributions to the administration. On the same day, Trump withdrew Jared Isaacman’s nomination to lead NASA. Isaacman was a close ally of Musk and the victim in Trump’s attempt to deliver a political warning. Three days later, Musk fumed that Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” was a “disgusting abomination” as it included spending hikes that went against DOGE’s funding cuts. The resulting feud with Trump has been costly for the world’s richest man. Tesla’s chainsaw wielding CEO saw his company’s stock cut down 15% last week, one of its biggest declines since 2020.

To their credit, neither Musk nor Trump broke their remaining political courtesy: Trump fired Musk’s ally instead of the entire DOGE team, and Musk lashed out to the Republican senators instead of directly on Trump. However, their broken relationship will inevitably lead the self-centered president to pivot away from Musk’s policy positions in the foreseeable future. Musk’s departure creates a power vacuum on Trump’s China policies, bolstering the China hawks’ already-prevailing influence, and leaving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the only member of Trump’s inner circle that bears resemblance to a China dove.

With Musk removed from the administration’s decision-making, Trump will implement blunt strategies on future China negotiations, with decreased compromises and driven by perceived domestic dividends for putting “America First.” Trump will be swayed by high-ranking officials who have passed the loyalty test: Marco Rubio (Secretary of State), Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense), and Peter Navarro (Senior Counselor on Trade and Manufacturing). Bessent will be the administration’s last line of defense from its complete destruction of America’s diplomatic relationship with China. Despite the recent call between Trump and Xi and resumption of trade talks in London, there is still plenty of reason to fear that U.S.-China relations will continue to degrade. Here is a breakdown of the remaining key voices on China in the Trump administration.

Rubio: Trump’s Establishment Quota Pick & Visa Czar

Marco Rubio clashed with Musk in front of Trump during a cabinet meeting. Musk criticized Rubio’s slow progress on USAID cuts, which Rubio perceived as a power overreach from Musk into his State Department, even after he bought out many employees. Trump took a neutral stance in public, confirming Rubio as the one in charge of the State Department. The fact that Trump approved Rubio publicly, as a powerful player in his administration, demonstrates that Rubio likely remains valuable to Trump. Meanwhile, Musk’s betrayal will inevitably increase the prominence of his political enemies. Rubio, who was already given the important seat at the table, now has even more space without Musk lurking over his shoulders.

Rubio’s effort to revoke Chinese student visas will be strengthened by the departure of Musk. As Trump’s top diplomat, Rubio will be emboldened as the leading voice of Trump’s foreign policies without Musk’s interference. As a senator, Rubio was one of the most prominent China hawks, having met with opposition figures to the Chinese government like the ex-Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen and Wong Chi-fung, a lead protestor in Hong Kong. In 2020, he also lobbied trump to ban QQ, an old Chinese communications app with a shrinking user base. As the Secretary of State, Rubio has been fulfilling his dream of deterring China’s global influence by revoking Chinese student visas. Musk took the traditional Silicon Valley elite position of welcoming immigrants to work in tech sectors.

With Musk gone, Rubio will not stop anytime soon, since his targeting of the Chinese students is motivated by his career-long opposition to nominally communist countries. He will convince Trump to eliminate China as a competitor by suppressing Chinese students’ access to American education. Unlike Musk, Rubio has no ties with the tech giants, which implies that he does not have a clear interest in protecting the tech companies’ hiring of international talents. As he identifies the Chinese as thieves of intellectual properties, he would not be as concerned with the economic losses of visa restrictions. Without Musk’s empathy for foreign talents, Rubio could prioritize blocking potential threats from Chinese interns and employees and let the tech corporations take the short-term pain.

Hegseth: A Trump-Manufactured Political Force & Taiwan Provocateur

Pete Hegseth will be another beneficiary of Musk’s power vacuum. As head of the Defense Department, Hegseth steered layoffs in the military while Musk fired federal government employees. Their work both fit Trump’s “drain the swamp” narrative and left little room for conflict of interest. Hegseth is among the former media personalities, including Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, who were elevated to the administration because of Trump’s love of television, meaning that the president is their only source of power. Hegseth, the most powerful person from this media faction, was careful not to confront Trump’s former confidant Musk. Although Hegseth never fought with Musk, he will get a share of Musk’s power simply by Musk leaving it on the table.

Hegseth could use this chance spread information about the United States’ protection of Taiwan that Beijing would find incendiary. During last week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Hegseth warned other nations about China’s imminent threats to Taiwan. The United States has been defending Taiwan for decades but never has the Secretary of Defense voluntarily called out the mainland government for a potential Taiwan invasion. Hegseth was nominated because of his media prowess, and his actions usually rotate around gaining public attention. Thus, Hegseth will probably continue to use tensions in Taiwan as an opportunity to build his reputation as an anti-China warrior. His public comments will help him maintain Trump’s trust and enrich his memoirs and paid interviews after he leaves the government. However, just like China faces great challenges in a potential Taiwan takeover, Hegseth’s comments are unlikely to lead to tangible changes in America’s Taiwan policies. Military strategies are too complicated, too dangerous, and still have too much inertia to be completely usurped by a media personality.

Navarro: Whipping the Corpse of Musk’s Trump Career, and, More Tariffs

Navarro has won the fight against Musk. He has cemented Trump’s hardline trade policies against China in the short-term. Political influence in the Trump era is not measured by the weight of one’s political position, but by how much one has the president’s ear. Peter Navarro is a standard power broker under Trump, a position he helped secure for himself by January 6 Capitol Hill riot investigation by electing to go to prison. He has been using his loyalty rating to push for more tariffs against China, most of which are not for strategic negotiations. Even better for Navarro, he has consistently criticized Musk’s business-oriented trade policies, prompting Elon to call him “dumber than a sack of bricks.” As Trump attempts to fight off Musk’s online rage, he will be inclined to implement more trade proposals from Navarro, the polar opposite of Musk’s positions.

Navarro’s outsider understanding of trade could further jeopardize U.S. relations with China and result in unmitigated tariff hikes from both countries. Navarro argues that the Chinese people and factories bear the cost of tariffs instead of the American people. Since he believes that tariffs areharmless to the United States, he will advocate for the administration to exploit all possible tariffs to protect American workers. Although Navarro thinks only China will pay the price, the most likely scenario is that China will impose heavier retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. China may shift its focus to markets like Europe and South America, while the Trump administration will need to respond to the anger of small business owners, those who have their supply chains cut off by the tariffs, in the 2026 midterm elections.

Bessent: The Lone Moderate on U.S.-China Relations

Bessent is the only remaining China dove among the major players in the Trump administration as of June 2025. Bessent represents the corporate leaders recruited by Trump, a faction that dominated the cabinet during the first Trump administration but has been losing influence to MAGA loyalists. Trump chose Bessent to lead the Treasury Department because Bessent was loyal and experienced in finance. A career hedge fund manager, Bessent is a firm believer of Reaganomics and free trade. He has publicly stated that “We (the United States) do not want a generalized decoupling with China, only de-risk“. In the first five months, Bessent, without major political allies, spearheaded America’s trade talks with China. The benefits he could reap from Musk’s fall could benefit him politically and physically: there are reports that angry Musk body-checked Bessent in the White House! Bessent opposition to Musk is a demonstration of loyalty to Trump that will likely pay dividends as he continues to lead U.S.-China trade talks.

However, Bessent faces a tough road ahead in this administration. He is working on America’s de-risking from China, framing Trump’s tariffs as merely a part of his negotiating tactics instead of permanent measures. Musk supported many of Bessent’s China policies. Despite their altercations, with Musk gone, Bessent has lost a strong ally that had intimate access to the president and opposed Trump’s new tariffs. It could become incredibly hard for Bessent to normalize relations with China when his colleagues propose banishment of Chinese international students, military escalation in Taiwan, and burdensome tariffs on the key goods that tie the two economies together. Musk’s departure from team Trump signifies the official domination of China hawks, leaving the diplomatic relationship subject to incoming political damages.

U.S.-China Relations Post-Musk

Elon Musk is a businessman who always looks after his interests, leading him to support lower tariffs and the influx of talent from China. His breakup with Trump will likely fuel the political energy of Rubio, Hegseth, and Navarro, confirming China as a threat to the U.S. economy and national security. Trump can still rely on Bessent to try to hold the United States’ economic partnership with China together. However, when Bessent fails to maintain the fragile status quo due to political opposition, the lives of average Americans and Chinese people will be disrupted by the economic and national security sanctions enacted by both countries.