Chinese Experts Dismiss U.S.-Russia Reset as a Threat to China-Russia Ties
One month into the Trump 2.0 administration, perhaps the biggest surprise on foreign policy front has been the dramatic reversal of U.S. policy toward Russia. President Trump has abandoned the Biden administration’s steadfast support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, bypassing Kyiv and engaging directly with Moscow at an initial meeting to negotiate an end to the conflict. In an even more dramatic moment, President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance clashed with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, criticizing him for not showing enough gratitude before the cameras.
There is always an unpredictability to Trump’s administrations, but the current attempt to end the war in Ukraine follows a timeline similar to that suggested by Trump’s National Security Advisor, Michael Walz, on the eve of last year’s election. “The next president should act urgently to bring the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to a swift conclusion, and finally focus strategic attention where it should be: countering the greater threat from the Chinese Communist Party,” wrote Waltz. The current alignment between Moscow and Washington is likely not what Walz had in mind, but it raises some questions about what happens next.
What is the Trump administration’s ultimate objective? Will China now officially become Washington’s primary geopolitical target? And, most importantly, will the United States partner with Russia to counter Beijing? These are issues that many China experts are watching closely.
Some analysts have coined the term “reverse Nixon” strategy to describe Trump’s approach, drawing a parallel to 1972, when President Nixon broke from past U.S. policy by reestablishing diplomatic ties with China to align against the Soviet Union—then America’s greatest adversary. Trump, they suggest, may be attempting a similar realignment, this time courting Russia to confront China.
However, after reviewing analyses from multiple Chinese experts on how warming U.S.-Russia relations could impact China-Russia ties, a consensus emerges: most do not believe this shift will significantly damage Beijing’s relationship with Moscow. They argue that Putin understands the deeply entrenched anti-Russia sentiment in the United States and that once Trump leaves office, there is no guarantee his successor will maintain a pro-Russia stance.
From their perspective, Putin, as a seasoned strategist, is unlikely to abandon China at this juncture or pivot toward a U.S. alliance against Beijing. Instead, they expect him to navigate this geopolitical shift cautiously, ensuring that Russia’s long-term interests remain secure.
Below are the perspectives of three Chinese experts on this issue: Professor Wei Zongyou from Fudan University’s Center for American Studies, prominent Chinese veteran journalist Hu Xijin, and Professor Cheng Yawen from Shanghai International Studies University’s School of International Relations.
Professor Wei Zongyou stated in an interview with the US-China Perception Monitor that the improvement in U.S.-Russia relations would not lead to a scenario where the U.S. and Russia join forces against China. His analysis was based primarily on the Trump administration’s foreign policy:
I don’t think the U.S. and Russia can truly reconcile, let alone join forces against China. Regarding the latter, Russia is also well aware that anti-Russian sentiment in the United States is extremely strong and cannot be reversed in the short term. Moreover, Trump’s ‘America First’ slogan necessitates maintaining peace among major powers, ensuring that wars do not break out between the U.S. and Russia or between the U.S. and China. Trump understands that if the U.S. gets entangled in overseas wars, it will be difficult to focus on the domestic economy. With the U.S. national debt ballooning and other economic challenges, Trump believes that America needs a period of recuperation to restore its national strength and competitiveness. Furthermore, China-Russia relations have remained consistently stable, and China has not harmed Russia’s interests. This situation is entirely different from the Cold War era, when China and the Soviet Union had major disputes and border conflicts. Even though China has not provided military aid to Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it has withstood pressure from Western countries and maintained normal economic and trade relations with Russia. In addition, the top leaders of China and Russia have maintained a close relationship. Therefore, even if there are signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Russia, Russia would not sacrifice its strategic interests with China to improve relations with the U.S. On the contrary, I believe that the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will provide China with an opportunity to improve its relations with the European Union, particularly in terms of economic and trade relations. During the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s commitment to maintaining normal trade relations with Russia has to some extent damaged its relations with the EU. However, once the war ends, China will have a new opportunity to rebuild its relationship with the EU. Additionally, Trump has indicated his intent to wield tariffs against the EU, which will inevitably strain U.S.-EU relations. Coupled with these two factors, China has a new opportunity to improve its diplomatic ties with the EU. In short, I believe the idea that the U.S. and Russia will join forces against China is highly unlikely. It reflects a victim mentality rather than reality.
Renowned Chinese media commentator and former Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin is concerned that if U.S.-Russia relations improve and the Ukraine war ends, the United States may concentrate its efforts on countering China. However, he remains confident in China-Russia relations.
Commenting on the recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin, Hu Xijin emphasized the significance of the conversation, stating that it demonstrated “the high resilience and strength of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era. It shows that this partnership transcends not only the outbreak of the Ukraine war but also the complex negotiations and arrangements surrounding its conclusion.”
Hu further noted that Putin personally briefed Xi Jinping on recent U.S.-Russia interactions and Russia’s position during the call, saying, “This is tantamount to publicly affirming China’s uniquely constructive and important role in promoting the Ukrainian peace process.”
Regarding the impact of improved U.S.-Russia relations on China-Russia ties, Hu Xijin wrote:
Trump is highly determined to comprehensively improve U.S.-Russia relations, to the extent that he somewhat views the Ukraine issue as an obstacle hindering U.S.-Russia rapprochement. He certainly has considered weakening China-Russia relations, but there is widespread skepticism about what tools he actually possesses to achieve this ambition. The biggest shock from Trump’s sudden pivot will undoubtedly be felt in Europe. While it will alter the external environment of China-Russia relations, it cannot shake the solid foundation of the comprehensive strategic partnership that has been steadily developed since the 1990s. This is why I have great confidence in China-Russia relations. I believe the impact on China of Trump moving closer to Moscow has been exaggerated... The sudden improvement in U.S.-Russia relations is a major geopolitical event that resets a crucial dimension of global geopolitics. However, at such a moment, Chinese people must remain confident. We should respect Russia’s strategic interests and diplomatic rights, take an objective view of the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations, and welcome progress toward ending the Ukraine war. The Trump team has staged some unexpected performances in this process, showcasing Washington’s unpredictability and self-serving nature. We may mock Washington’s fickleness, but this attitude should not extend toward Moscow. China-Russia relations must transcend both the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the complex negotiations and arrangements surrounding its conclusion.
When asked whether the restoration of U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations would impact China-Russia relations, Professor Cheng Yawen from Shanghai International Studies University stated in an interview with Guanchawang that the improvement in U.S.-Russia relations would not pose a challenge to China-Russia ties. One of the main reasons, he explained, is that Russia is well aware that Trump’s presidency lasts only four years, and it is uncertain whether the next U.S. administration will maintain a pro-Russia stance. Second, trade between China and Russia brings tangible economic benefits to Russia. Finally, he pointed out that the situation today is different from when Nixon improved U.S.-China relations to counter the Soviet Union.
I believe that for Putin, simply accepting the 'candy' offered by the U.S. and then turning away from China is highly unlikely. Putin is a man with a strong sense of history, and he will look back at past events: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia repeatedly sought cooperation with the United States and naively embraced the U.S., but how did the U.S. treat Russia in return? Trump's presidency lasts only four years—what happens after that? If the administration changes again in four years, what would Russia do then? Secondly, in recent years, China and Russia have built a strong cooperative relationship, with virtually no obstacles to collaboration in both political and economic spheres. Why would Russia abandon this partnership and turn to embrace the U.S. instead? At least for now, Russia’s two main interests—security and economic development—cannot be fully guaranteed by the United States. From an economic perspective, Trump has always sought to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. from other countries, whereas what Russia needs is investment—not just simple investments, but also industrial and manufacturing investments. Can the U.S. provide this kind of support to Russia? In the past few days, I have seen some people claim that the current situation is similar to the shock that Nixon’s visit to China brought to Russia 50 years ago. However, in my view, the impact of 'Nixon 1.0' on U.S.-China-Soviet relations is fundamentally different from the so-called 'Nixon 2.0' and its impact on U.S.-China-Russia relations today. In the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and the Soviet Union 50 years ago, the U.S. reached out to China, and through enhanced cooperation, China gained not only political and security benefits but also economic benefits. At the time, the U.S. was investing globally, and China was in a position to absorb the U.S.'s offshore manufacturing. Therefore, in both security and economic terms, China’s key interests were met through U.S.-China cooperation. But today, Russia cannot gain economic security simply by improving relations with the U.S. Therefore, the notion that improved U.S.-Russia relations will immediately lead to a sharp downturn in China-Russia relations is highly unlikely.
As noted in an article published by The Diplomat , Trump’s attempt to drive a wedge between China and Russia is “a strategic fantasy.” The article states that “any U.S. effort to align with Russia to counterbalance China lacks the geopolitical, economic, and strategic foundation necessary for success,” a view that shares with three Chinese expert in this article. Nevertheless, how exactly the US-Russia-China triangular relationship will evolve remains to be seen.
Juan Zhang is a senior writer for the U.S.-China Perception Monitor and managing editor for 中美印象 (The Monitor’s Chinese language publication).
The views expressed in this article represent those of the author(s) and not those of The Carter Center.
