A Speech by Stephen A. Orlins: Jimmy Carter Forum on U.S.-China Relations

On January 9-10, 2024, the Carter Center held the Forum in Honor of Jimmy Carter and the 45th Anniversary of U.S.-China Relations. The event commemorated President Carter’s decision with Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping to normalize diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China in January 1979.

On the first day of the forum, the Carter Center welcomed Stephen A. Orlins as a keynote speaker. Orlins currently serves as the President of the National Committee on United States–China Relations. The transcript of his speech can be found below. 

谢大使用这么好的英文，那我是不是应该用中文演讲？I said, “Since we’ve heard such perfect English from the Chinese diplomats, should I be using Chinese to speak, to show that there are some Americans who can do that?” But let me thank Da Wei and Craig Allen and Paige and Xinbo for putting together what is just a great conference. It makes me feel just so good, to look around at this room.

And let me, of course, thank President Carter. Without his visionary leadership, I would not have been able to play my tiny, tiny role in the historic events of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

“在困难的时候要看到成绩，要看到光明，要提高我们的勇气!” I have to say that quote, which is basically, “In times of difficulty, we must look at our record, we must look at the bright side, and we must boost up our courage.” As I thought about that quote, I realized that what President Carter and Deng Xiaoping did was boosted up their courage, that it required an enormous amount of courage to do what they did. So, let me actually use the “提高我们的勇气,” to boost up our courage, to talk about where we are on U.S.-China relations, and more importantly, where I think we need to go.

What strikes me, what people have forgotten, is that in 1978, when President Carter made this decision, in the prior decades, hundreds of thousands of American soldiers had died on the battlefields of Asia, and millions of Chinese had died on the battle battlefields of Asia. I certainly would never forget that, in 1972, when I first went to Asia, my classmates, my friends, were dying in the war in Vietnam. And we’ve forgotten about the political environment that President Carter and Deng Xiaoping confronted.

When I was sent the invitation for this event, there’s this picture of Deng and Carter signing a document. And behind President Carter, people probably don’t remember, but it’s a fellow by the name of Herb Hansel, who was my boss at the time. I was a whopping 28 years old. I always say, I was the “小土豆.” I was the “small potato.” I was the last Indian in the long chain of command. And I remember, when Herb Hansel testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and as the 小土豆 [small potato], you got to sit in the second row. You never got to sit in the front row, you got to sit in the second row. And he was berated by senators from both parties for selling out American interests. I was terrified. I just sat there, literally with my hands shaking. Herb Hansel stood firm, President Carter stood firm. Secretary Brzezinski, Mike Oxenberg, Cyrus Vance, Warren Christopher, Herb Hansel, Richard Holbrooke, all stood firm.

And guess what? What we lose sight of today, so often, is that virtually no American and Chinese soldiers have died on the battlefields of Asia since the establishment of diplomatic relations. And Asia has been peaceful and prosperous for the first time in almost a century.

I sat here with President Carter almost 10 years ago today, and I interviewed him for an hour. And he said in the interview, and I remember it, that 60% of the United States Congress opposed the establishment of diplomatic relations. But he did the right thing. And he “提高我们的勇气”, he “lifted up his courage”, so we could have this now 45-year period of peace and prosperity. The way I’m thinking about U.S.-China relations, in terms of boosting up our courage, I propose three levels of things we need to do.

The first is, it doesn’t require a lot of courage. We should just be able to do it. The second is, a medium amount of courage. It’s going to be difficult, but we still should do it. And the third, it’s going to take Carter-Deng levels of courage to accomplish what needs to be accomplished.

I’m sure I’ll be criticized, even from some of my friends, for being oblivious to the political attitudes in both countries. Look. I’m aware of the polls. I know that 85% percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of China. I’ve read the report of the committee on the Chinese Communist Party, the one in the United States Congress. But I never lose sight of the bravery, not only of President Carter and Deng, but earlier, of Kissinger and Nixon and Mao and Zhou, and how they fought against the political currents to do the right thing.

As Ambassador Burns and Xie Feng pointed out, we now see an uptick in the relationship. And they’ve mentioned all of those, so I don’t want to go over them and talk about them again. But the Fentanyl issue is much more important than people realize. And as Ambassador Burns said, the Chinese have already taken many steps to stop the export of precursors to Fentanyl. And you know why that’s so important? Because, Craig knows this, Mike knows this, we all know this, we get criticized for just advocating communications with the Chinese. We get criticized for hosting the President of China to give a speech to the American civic and business communities. So, what I now say to that criticism, because of the progress on Fentanyl, is, “You tell it to the parent of a kid who did not die from an overdose of Fentanyl.” The benefits of the communication are absolutely tangible, and need to be understood. When you’re criticized, you say, “Tell it to the parent of the kid who didn’t die.”

Let me talk about a few of the things that need to be done. First, on what I consider, doesn’t need a lot of courage. You’ve heard Xie Feng talk about flights. We need many more flights. I’m getting worn out flying 24 hours to Beijing and back each way, and you get really dehydrated. Obviously, we need an end to the war in Ukraine so we can overfly Russia.

Xie Feng mentioned that we’re having a better issuance of visas, which is really important. China now has allowed virtually all of the EU to have visa-free entry for 15 days. Well, here’s a suggestion, which shouldn’t be very hard, give it to the Americans too. 15 days, it’s not a big deal. It’s not a national security issue.

There is another trend which is deeply disturbing. The embassy and the consulates do a lot of diligence, and they give you a visa. You show up in the host country, and the respective immigration service questions you, puts you back on a plane, and sends you back to the country. What was the point of the work of the embassy and consulates if we’re going to be doing that? Both countries, and it shouldn’t be hard, need to take the position: When you are issued a visa, you are allowed to enter the country. Why do we have this whole visa issuance process? It shouldn’t be too hard. Exit bans need to end. If you’re in a criminal proceeding, okay, you can’t leave the country. Otherwise you can leave the country. The Chinese government needs to make sure that no longer happens.

The National Committee surveyed our scholars. A full 19% of scholars associated with the National Committee on U.S.-China relations are afraid to go back to China. That is bad. We need these scholars to be going to China. The U.S. government needs to restart the Fulbright program. We need to restart the Peace Corps. The Chinese government needs to allow the U.S. government to do that. That shouldn’t require a lot of courage.

The Science and Technology Agreement, which was negotiated during President Carter’s term by Frank Press, needs to be extended, not for six months. We got a six-month extension. It needs to be extended for 5 years, for 10 years. It’s good.

More in the middle level, it will require some level of 勇气 [courage]. The Trump administration was wrong when it closed the Chinese consulate in Houston. The Chinese were wrong when they reciprocated and closed the American consulate in Chengdu. We should mutually agree to reopen those consulates. When you speak individually to foreign service officers, they all agree with that. Nobody thinks that’s wrong. “Well, the U.S. probably has a political problem in being able to accomplish that.” Well, I suggest to the Chinese, just as the Nike ad goes, “Just do it.” Just reopen the consulate. The benefits to Chinese and Southwestern China are enormous. See if the United States wants to benefit Americans in the Southwestern United States.

Tariffs are a plague on both of our houses. They punish Chinese and Americans. They especially punish lower-income people. I would hope, but I’m beginning to think it’s not going to happen, the two governments can negotiate a mutual reduction of the tariffs. Once again, the U.S., political environment, is not favorable to doing that. But does that mean that the Chinese shouldn’t do it on their own and leave the Americans in the embarrassing position of maintaining these tariffs while the Chinese cut them? I think that is something which should be done.

The National Committee runs seven Track II dialogues with various counterpart organizations in China. In the macroeconomic digital economy, healthcare and climate finance, Track II, the Chinese and American participants all make pleas to their government to have a definition of national security. Without a definition of national security, it is expanding to include virtually everything. Businesses and people can’t operate. It is restricting climate change. It is restricting investment. It is restricting capital flows. So, both governments can, and are willing, to get together to define what national security is, and in effect create a list of what can be done.

Finally, because I know we’re already running late, let me just finish with one thing which would really require Deng-Carter levels of 勇气 [courage]. I’ve lived in China for a long time. 20 years ago, I was able to read the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post. I was able to look at Twitter and YouTube and use Facebook and use Google. And obviously, today, without a VPN, you can’t do that. China can protect its national security while allowing these businesses to operate. Just think of the headline in the United States if China agreed to allow one or some, or all, of these businesses to operate. We need to change the narrative of U.S.-China relations. That one action would allow me, would allow us, to do that. The Chinese media always asks, “How does it feel to be a minority in your views of U.S.-China relations?” And I say, “I’m fine with that.” And they go, “Why?” I said, “Well, I was a minority in my opposition to the war in Vietnam. And guess what? Seven years later, I was the majority, because it was in the interest of the U.S. people.”

Second, when I look at this room, I think. “If I’m going to fight a war, I want to be in the trenches with all of you.” It really makes me comfortable in fighting the war.

And third, and most importantly, we’re right. Educating Americans about China, and Chinese about America, is the right thing to do. So, just as President Carter and Deng stood firm, 45 years ago, and pressed forward, no matter how strong the criticism was, the people in this room, and our governments, need to stand firm. Speaking as the former 小土豆 [small potato] in the State Department under President Carter, I will do everything in my power to make sure that happens.

Thank you.